%21世紀的第二個十年伊始，美國經濟仍未從2007年12月開端的年夜闌珊中規復過來。此前美國曾經采取瞭汗青上最年夜的財務和貨泉刺激舉動。投進瞭7000億救市資金，7000億刺激規劃，而且采取瞭上萬億的量化寬松政策，以債權貨泉化，即印錢的方法維持當局收入。美聯儲的資產公司 登記 地址 出租欠債表膨脹瞭好幾萬億美元，由於它購置瞭墮入困境的典質債券和衍生品以維持金融體系的活動性和運行。依據參議員Bernie Sanders揭曉的審計總署的審計講演，聯儲曾奧秘借給美國及本國的銀行16萬億美元，這比美國海內生孩子總值還多。
同樣，用U.3可以低估掉業率。媒體標題黨反應的2011年6月的掉業率為9.2%。但它不包含頹喪的掉業人群，它指的是那些由於沒有事業可做而拋卻找事業的那類人群。這類人群不在U.3統計裡。聯邦當局可能感到這太假瞭，以是也采用U.6統計，它包含瞭短期的頹喪掉業人群。這個甚少為媒體所報道的數字，反應出2011年6月的掉業率為16.2%。Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) 更入一個步驟，采用1980年民間采用的統計方式，它的統計包含瞭恆久頹喪掉業人群，如許，這個掉業率就變為瞭22.7%。換句話說，現實2011年美國掉業率介於20%到25%之間。
另一個危機是由放松羈系，作弊，貪心以及房貸證券化惹起的金融危機。放貸者沒有意往檢討房貸人的天資，由於房貸合同被賣給第三方，然後第三方又把這些資產組合穿插賣給別的的投資者公司 註冊 處 地址。賣失房貸合同可以賺錢，那麼放貸機構就會發放更多的典質存款，從而可以賺更多的錢。為此放貸機構甚至偽造存款人的信譽記實。跟著房市蓬勃成長，良多人借房貸以倒賣賺錢。跟著房價急劇下跌，首付款和信貸天資變得讓人擔憂起來。金融危機因投行經由過程杠桿縮小債權，逃避資源充分要求而加劇好轉。當一切泡沫決裂，房市就崩盤瞭。
跟著2011年對經濟復蘇的但願徐徐消散，戰役的急切性在加劇。（見Antiwar.com, “Sen. Graham ‘Very Close’ to War.”）
作者簡介：Paul Craig Roberts博士,曾任華爾街日報副編，貿易周刊的專欄作傢，曾在參議院人事委員會任職。裡根當局時代曾擔任經濟政策財務司助理秘書。受聘於六所年夜學，曾獲美國財務部銀色勛章及法國總統榮譽勛章。
"Economic Armageddon": Washington’s Response to a Failed Ecomomy: More War
by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts
As the second decade of the 21st century began, the US economy had not recovered from the Great Recession that began in December 2007.
The economy’s failure to recover was despite the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in the country’s history. There was a $700 billion bank bailout, a $700 billion stimulus program, a couple of trillion in “quantitative easing,” that is, in debt monetization or the printing of money to finance the government’s expenditures. In addition the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet had expanded by trillions of dollars as the Fed purchased troubled mortgage bonds and derivatives in its effort to keep the financial system solvent and functioning. According to the Government Accountability Office’s audit of the Federal Reserve released by Senator Bernie Sanders, the Federal Reserve provided secret loans to US and foreign banks totaling $16.1 trillion, a sum larger than US Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Despite the enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus, the economy remained dead in the water.
In 2011 the deficit in the federal government’s annual expenditures was 43 percent of the budget. In other words, the US government had to borrow, or the Fed had to monetize, 43 percent of federal expenditures during fiscal year 2011. Despite this unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, the economy did not recover.
At the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the economy’s decline was temporarily halted by federal subsidies for 汽車and home purchases. The $8,000 housing subsidy helped newlyweds purchase starter homes as the subsidy was a big chunk of the down payment in a depressed housing market. The 汽車purchase subsidy moved future demand into the present. When these subsidies expired, the economy’s life support was turned off.
Problems with the statistical reporting of unemployment, inflation, and GDP disguised the worsening economy. Seasonal adjustments used to smooth the data over the course of the year were not 設計ed for prolonged recession. Neither was the “birth-death” model used by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to estimate non-reported jobs from new start-up companies and losses from companies that have gone out of business. The birth-death model was 設計ed for a growing economy and during downturns overestimates the number of new jobs created.
The “substitution effect” used in the consumer price index (CPI) underestimates inflation by assuming that consumers substitute cheaper foods for those that rise in price. For example, if the price of New York strip steak rises, this does not show up in the CPI, because of the assumption that people shift their purchases to a less expensive cut such as round steak.
COOKING THE BOOKS
The widely used “core inflation” measure does not include food or energy. Core inflation is a useful measure for those who want to put an optimistic spin on the outlook.
公司 登記 地址 限制 By underestimating inflation, the government can overestimate real GDP growth, thus creating a fictional rosy outlook. Similarly, by using the employment measure known as U.3, the government underestimates unemployment.
The “headline” unemployment rate, the one emphasized by the media and the financial press, stood at 9.2 percent in June, 2011. But this rate does not include any discouraged workers. A discouraged worker is a person who has ceased looking for a job, because there are no jobs to be found. A discouraged worker is not considered to be in the work force and is not counted among the U.3 unemployed.
The federal government knows that this is phony and has a U.6 measure of unemployment that counts the short- term discouraged. This measure, seldom reported by the media, stood at 16.2 percent in June, 2011.
Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) continues to count also the long-term discouraged workers according to the way it was officially done in 1980. In June, 2011, this full measure of the US unemployment rate was 22.7 percent.
In other words, by 2011 between one-fifth and one-fourth of the US work force were without jobs.
As 2011 progressed, the United States faced three simultaneous economic crises. One crisis arose from the loss of US jobs, GDP, consumer income, and tax base caused by corporations offshoring their production for the US market. Instead of making their products at home with American labor and providing Americans with jobs and states and localities with tax revenues, US corporations provided countries such as China, India, and Indonesia with GDP, jobs, consumer income and a tax base. This practice meant that economic stimulus was unable to revive the US economy as Americans cannot be called back to work jobs that have been moved abroad.
Another crisis was the financial crisis resulting from deregulation, fraud, and greed. Secur設立 公司 地址itization of mortgages meant that issuers of mortgages no longer had any incentive to ascertain the credit worthiness of the borrower, because the issuers sold the mortgages to third parties who combined the mortgages with others and sold them to investors.
As mortgages were issued for fees, the more mortgages issued, the higher the income from fees. In order to collect fee income, some issuers faked credit reports for borrowers. With the housing market booming, many people took mortgages in order to make money on the resale of the properties. With housing prices rising rapidly, down payments and credit worthiness became concerns of the past. The financial crisis was made worse by the ability of investment banks to get around capital requirements and, thereby, leverage their equity by incurring enormous debt. When all the bubbles burst, the house of cards collapsed.
The third crisis was the $1.5+ trillion annual federal budget deficits, which were too large to be financed without the Federal Reserve buying the Treasury’s new debt issues. Known as monetizing debt, the Federal Reserve purchased the Treasury’s bills, notes, and bonds by creating a checking account, which the Treasury would then draw upon to pay the government’s bills. The outpouring of Treasury debt raised concerns about the dollar’s exchange value and role as reserve currency, and it raised fears of inflation. Gold and silver prices rose as the dollar declined in foreign exchange markets.
Any one of these crises was serious. All together, they implied economic armageddon.
There was no obvious way out, but even if one could be found, the government was focused elsewhere — on wars.
In addition to ongoing military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia, the US and NATO began military operations against Libya on March 19, 2011. As with the existing wars, the real purpose of the aggression against Libya was not acknowledged, but it became clear that the war’s purpose was to evict China from its oil investments in eastern Libya. Unlike the previous Arab protests, the Libyan rebellion was an armed uprising in which some saw the CIA’s hand.
The Libyan war upped the risk, because although hiding behind the veil of Arab protest, the US was actually confronting China. Similarly, in the US-supported armed rebellion in Syria, Washington’s target was the Russian naval base at Tartus. Overthrowing the Assad government in Syria and installing a US friendly regime would put paid to Rus登記 地址sia’s naval presence in the Mediterranean.
By hiding its purposes behind Arab protests in Libya and Syria that it might have initiated, Washington avoided face-to-face conflicts營業 地址 出租 with China and Russia, but nevertheless the two powers understood that Washington was striking at their interests. This elevated the recklessness of Washington’s aggressive policies by initiating confrontation with two nuclear powers, one of which held financial power over the US as America’s largest foreign creditor.
China’s oil investments in Angola and Nigeria were another target. To counter China’s economic penetration of Africa, the US created the American African Command in the closing years of the first decade of the 21st century. Disturbed by China’s rise, the US undertook to prevent China from having independent sources of energy. The great game that in the past has always led to war is being played out once again.
September 11, 2001, provided Washington with a new “threat” to replace the Soviet threat, which had expired in 1991. Despite the absence of the Soviet threat, the military/ security budget had been kept alive for a decade. September 11, 2001, injected rapid growth into the military/security bud- get. A decade later the budget stood at approximately $1.1 trillion annually, or approximately 70 percent of the federal deficit which was crippling the dollar and threatening the US Treasury’s credit rating.
Focused on Middle Eastern wars, Washington was losing the war for the US economy.
As the expectation of economic recovery evaporated over the course of 2011, the need for war became more imperative. (See Antiwar.com, “Sen. Graham ‘Very Close’ to War.”)
Former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal and columnist for Business Week, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts served on personal and committee staffs in the House and Senate, and served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy during the Reagan Administration. He has held academic appointments in six universities. He was awarded the US Treasury Silver Medal and the Legion of Honor by the President of France.