經濟決鬥:華盛頓對掉敗的經濟的歸答是:更多的戰役(組內翻譯稿)(轉錄發載)

%21世紀的第二個十年伊始,美國經濟仍未從2007年12月開端的年夜闌珊中規復過來。此前美國曾經采取瞭汗青上最年夜的財務和貨泉刺激舉動。投進瞭7000億救市資金,7000億刺激規劃,而且采取瞭上萬億的量化寬松政策,以債權貨泉化,即印錢的方法維持當局收入。美聯儲的資產公司 登記 地址 出租欠債表膨脹瞭好幾萬億美元,由於它購置瞭墮入困境的典質債券和衍生品以維持金融體系的活動性和運行。依據參議員Bernie Sanders揭曉的審計總署的審計講演,聯儲曾奧秘借給美國及本國的銀行16萬億美元,這比美國海內生孩子總值還多。
  
  
  
  但縱然采取瞭這麼年夜的財務和貨泉刺激政策,經濟狀態還是少氣無力不見但願。2011年聯邦當局年度收入占瞭整個國傢估算的43%。換句話說,在2011財務年度裡,43%的國傢收入須靠美國當局經由過程向美聯儲假貸和美聯儲印錢來維持。但前所未有的刺激政策仍不克不及使經濟規復。
  
  
  
  21世紀第一個十年靠近序幕的時辰,聯邦對car 和衡宇購置的補貼辦法使得經濟下滑暫時止住瞭腳步。新婚匹儔在購買新居時可以獲得8000美金的補貼,這筆錢在低迷的房市裡占瞭首付款的很年夜部門。而購車補貼則是將將來的需要挪到瞭此刻。可是,這些補貼辦法一旦掉效,那麼對經濟的支撐也將消散。
  
  
  
  反應掉業,通脹和海內生孩子總值情形的統計講演存在問題,它袒護瞭逐漸好轉的經濟狀態。季候性調劑一向是使得全年的數據走勢顯得光滑,但它好像並未在design時把簡短的闌珊斟酌入往。美國勞工統計局(BLS)運用的生滅模子(birth/death model)也不克不及反應問題。這個模子是用以估量新守業公司新增的未掛號的事業職位和隨公司破產而消散的事業職位。這個模子合用於經濟增永劫期,在經濟闌珊時它會過高估量新增事業職位的多少數字。別的,消費者物價指數(CPI)裡假設的替換效應,即消費者會因物價升高而轉而購置便宜的替換商品,會低估通脹。好比,紐約牛脊的漲價不會反應在消費者物價指數裡,由於物價指數假設人們會往購置更廉價的排骨。
  
  
  
  掩飾賬目
  
  
  
  被普遍采用的焦點通脹解除瞭食物和動力费用。假如誰想力求鋪示對將來遠景的極其樂觀估量,那就采用它好瞭。是以當局據此可低估通脹,高估現實GDP的增長,創造空幻的繁華遠景。
  
  
  
  同樣,用U.3可以低估掉業率。媒體標題黨反應的2011年6月的掉業率為9.2%。但它不包含頹喪的掉業人群,它指的是那些由於沒有事業可做而拋卻找事業的那類人群。這類人群不在U.3統計裡。聯邦當局可能感到這太假瞭,以是也采用U.6統計,它包含瞭短期的頹喪掉業人群。這個甚少為媒體所報道的數字,反應出2011年6月的掉業率為16.2%。Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) 更入一個步驟,采用1980年民間采用的統計方式,它的統計包含瞭恆久頹喪掉業人群,如許,這個掉業率就變為瞭22.7%。換句話說,現實2011年美國掉業率介於20%到25%之間。
  
  
  
  2011年接上去的日子裡,美國面對三個經濟危機,並且會同步產生。因素是美國掉業人口回升,GDP萎縮,消費者支出降落,以及因公司離岸外包供給美國市場的生孩子流動而惹起的稅收削減。美國公司非但沒有雇傭外國勞能源在外國生孩子,以支撐美國的待業,給州和處所當局提供稅源,相反,它們把這些利益給瞭中國,印度和印尼這些國傢。如許一來,經濟刺激辦法就無奈提振美國經濟,由於事業職位外流他國,不成能給當地美國人瞭。
  
  
  
  另一個危機是由放松羈系,作弊,貪心以及房貸證券化惹起的金融危機。放貸者沒有意往檢討房貸人的天資,由於房貸合同被賣給第三方,然後第三方又把這些資產組合穿插賣給別的的投資者公司 註冊 處 地址。賣失房貸合同可以賺錢,那麼放貸機構就會發放更多的典質存款,從而可以賺更多的錢。為此放貸機構甚至偽造存款人的信譽記實。跟著房市蓬勃成長,良多人借房貸以倒賣賺錢。跟著房價急劇下跌,首付款和信貸天資變得讓人擔憂起來。金融危機因投行經由過程杠桿縮小債權,逃避資源充分要求而加劇好轉。當一切泡沫決裂,房市就崩盤瞭。
  
  
  
  經濟年夜決鬥
  
  
  
  第三個危機是1萬5千億美元的年度聯邦估算赤字。要是沒有美聯儲的債權貨泉化辦法,即經由過程購置財務部刊行的新刊行的短中恆久國債來張羅資金,並把刊行的錢放在一個新建的活期貸款賬戶上,則聯邦當局的維持開銷將難認為繼。濫發的財務部債權惹起瞭對美元匯率,美元的儲幣位置以及通脹的擔心。美元匯率降落,而金銀费用回升。
  
  
  
  後面三個危機中的任何一個都是嚴峻的危機。它們一路預示著金融年夜動蕩的到來。
  
  
  
  望起來沒有什麼顯著的出路,就算有,當局也會把註意力集中在其餘處所:戰役。
  
  
  
  美國和北約始終以來對伊拉克,阿富汗,巴基斯坦,也門和索馬裡連續入行軍事衝擊,2011年3月19日又對利比亞入行軍事襲擊。戰役入行到此刻,對利比亞的侵犯的真正的目標始終無奈被確認,但目標已徐徐清楚,便是把中國在東利比亞的石油投資驅趕進來。和之前的阿拉伯抗議流動不同,利比亞反當局軍是武裝的造反派,背地有中情局的黑手。
  
  
  
  利比亞戰役增添瞭風險,由於在阿拉伯地域抗議流動的背地是美國抗衡中國。相似的,對敘利亞阻擋派的支撐也是為瞭衝擊俄國在塔爾圖斯的水師基地。顛覆阿薩德當局,攙扶親美政權將收場俄水師在地中海的軍事存在。
  
  
  
  經由過程袒護對利比亞和敘利亞步履的真正的目標,華盛頓力求防止和中俄入行側面沖突。但中俄都明確華盛頓在敲打它們的好處。這增添瞭美國對兩個核年夜國入攻性政策的莽撞水平。此中一個仍是美外洋債最年夜的持有人。
  
  
  
  中國在安哥拉和尼日利亞的投資是美國的另一個目的。為瞭阻攔中國在非洲的滲入滲出,美國在前幾年景立瞭美軍非洲司令部。因擔心中國的日益強大,美國采取辦法阻攔中國得到自力的動力來歷。這種年夜遊戲在以去老是惹起戰役沖突,此刻又來瞭。
  
  
  
  911事務為美國提供瞭代替蘇聯要挾的新的捏詞。來自蘇聯的要挾自91年起就消散瞭,但接上去的10年裡軍事和安全估算並未低落。911事務使此項估算得以急劇增長。再10年後來,此項估算膨脹到高達1.1萬億美元,占聯邦赤字的70%。赤字使得美元升值,要挾到美國的評級。
  
  
  
  美國集中於中東的戰事,卻丟失瞭經濟戰
  
  
  
  跟著2011年對經濟復蘇的但願徐徐消散,戰役的急切性在加劇。(見Antiwar.com, “Sen. Graham ‘Very Close’ to War.”)
  
  
  
  作者簡介:Paul Craig Roberts博士,曾任華爾街日報副編,貿易周刊的專欄作傢,曾在參議院人事委員會任職。裡根當局時代曾擔任經濟政策財務司助理秘書。受聘於六所年夜學,曾獲美國財務部銀色勛章及法國總統榮譽勛章。
  
  
  
  
  
  
  "Economic Armageddon": Washington’s Response to a Failed Ecomomy: More War
  
  
  
  by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts
  
  
  
  
  
  
  As the second decade of the 21st century began, the US economy had not recovered from the Great Recession that began in December 2007.
  
  
  
  
  
  The economy’s failure to recover was despite the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in the country’s history. There was a $700 billion bank bailout, a $700 billion stimulus program, a couple of trillion in “quantitative easing,” that is, in debt monetization or the printing of money to finance the government’s expenditures. In addition the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet had expanded by trillions of dollars as the Fed purchased troubled mortgage bonds and derivatives in its effort to keep the financial system solvent and functioning. According to the Government Accountability Office’s audit of the Federal Reserve released by Senator Bernie Sanders, the Federal Reserve provided secret loans to US and foreign banks totaling $16.1 trillion, a sum larger than US Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
  
  
  
  
  
  Despite the enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus, the economy remained dead in the water.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  In 2011 the deficit in the federal government’s annual expenditures was 43 percent of the budget. In other words, the US government had to borrow, or the Fed had to monetize, 43 percent of federal expenditures during fiscal year 2011. Despite this unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, the economy did not recover.
  
  
  
  
  
  At the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the economy’s decline was temporarily halted by federal subsidies for 汽車and home purchases. The $8,000 housing subsidy helped newlyweds purchase starter homes as the subsidy was a big chunk of the down payment in a depressed housing market. The 汽車purchase subsidy moved future demand into the present. When these subsidies expired, the economy’s life support was turned off.
  
  
  
  
  
  Problems with the statistical reporting of unemployment, inflation, and GDP disguised the worsening economy. Seasonal adjustments used to smooth the data over the course of the year were not 設計ed for prolonged recession. Neither was the “birth-death” model used by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to estimate non-reported jobs from new start-up companies and losses from companies that have gone out of business. The birth-death model was 設計ed for a growing economy and during downturns overestimates the number of new jobs created.
  
  
  
  
  
  The “substitution effect” used in the consumer price index (CPI) underestimates inflation by assuming that consumers substitute cheaper foods for those that rise in price. For example, if the price of New York strip steak rises, this does not show up in the CPI, because of the assumption that people shift their purchases to a less expensive cut such as round steak.
  
  
  
  
  
  COOKING THE BOOKS
  
  
  
  
  
  The widely used “core inflation” measure does not include food or energy. Core inflation is a useful measure for those who want to put an optimistic spin on the outlook.
  
  
  
  
  
 公司 登記 地址 限制 By underestimating inflation, the government can overestimate real GDP growth, thus creating a fictional rosy outlook. Similarly, by using the employment measure known as U.3, the government underestimates unemployment.
  
  
  
  
  
  The “headline” unemployment rate, the one emphasized by the media and the financial press, stood at 9.2 percent in June, 2011. But this rate does not include any discouraged workers. A discouraged worker is a person who has ceased looking for a job, because there are no jobs to be found. A discouraged worker is not considered to be in the work force and is not counted among the U.3 unemployed.
  
  
  
  
  
  The federal government knows that this is phony and has a U.6 measure of unemployment that counts the short- term discouraged. This measure, seldom reported by the media, stood at 16.2 percent in June, 2011.
  
  
  
  
  
  Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) continues to count also the long-term discouraged workers according to the way it was officially done in 1980. In June, 2011, this full measure of the US unemployment rate was 22.7 percent.
  
  
  
  
  
  In other words, by 2011 between one-fifth and one-fourth of the US work force were without jobs.
  
  
  
  
  
  As 2011 progressed, the United States faced three simultaneous economic crises. One crisis arose from the loss of US jobs, GDP, consumer income, and tax base caused by corporations offshoring their production for the US market. Instead of making their products at home with American labor and providing Americans with jobs and states and localities with tax revenues, US corporations provided countries such as China, India, and Indonesia with GDP, jobs, consumer income and a tax base. This practice meant that economic stimulus was unable to revive the US economy as Americans cannot be called back to work jobs that have been moved abroad.
  
  
  
  
  
  Another crisis was the financial crisis resulting from deregulation, fraud, and greed. Secur設立 公司 地址itization of mortgages meant that issuers of mortgages no longer had any incentive to ascertain the credit worthiness of the borrower, because the issuers sold the mortgages to third parties who combined the mortgages with others and sold them to investors.
  
  
  
  
  
  As mortgages were issued for fees, the more mortgages issued, the higher the income from fees. In order to collect fee income, some issuers faked credit reports for borrowers. With the housing market booming, many people took mortgages in order to make money on the resale of the properties. With housing prices rising rapidly, down payments and credit worthiness became concerns of the past. The financial crisis was made worse by the ability of investment banks to get around capital requirements and, thereby, leverage their equity by incurring enormous debt. When all the bubbles burst, the house of cards collapsed.
  
  
  
  
  
  ECONOMIC ARMAGEDDON
  
  
  
  
  
  The third crisis was the $1.5+ trillion annual federal budget deficits, which were too large to be financed without the Federal Reserve buying the Treasury’s new debt issues. Known as monetizing debt, the Federal Reserve purchased the Treasury’s bills, notes, and bonds by creating a checking account, which the Treasury would then draw upon to pay the government’s bills. The outpouring of Treasury debt raised concerns about the dollar’s exchange value and role as reserve currency, and it raised fears of inflation. Gold and silver prices rose as the dollar declined in foreign exchange markets.
  
  
  
  
  
  Any one of these crises was serious. All together, they implied economic armageddon.
  
  
  
  
  
  There was no obvious way out, but even if one could be found, the government was focused elsewhere — on wars.
  
  
  
  
  
  In addition to ongoing military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia, the US and NATO began military operations against Libya on March 19, 2011. As with the existing wars, the real purpose of the aggression against Libya was not acknowledged, but it became clear that the war’s purpose was to evict China from its oil investments in eastern Libya. Unlike the previous Arab protests, the Libyan rebellion was an armed uprising in which some saw the CIA’s hand.
  
  
  
  
  
  The Libyan war upped the risk, because although hiding behind the veil of Arab protest, the US was actually confronting China. Similarly, in the US-supported armed rebellion in Syria, Washington’s target was the Russian naval base at Tartus. Overthrowing the Assad government in Syria and installing a US friendly regime would put paid to Rus登記 地址sia’s naval presence in the Mediterranean.
  
  
  
  
  
  By hiding its purposes behind Arab protests in Libya and Syria that it might have initiated, Washington avoided face-to-face conflicts營業 地址 出租 with China and Russia, but nevertheless the two powers understood that Washington was striking at their interests. This elevated the recklessness of Washington’s aggressive policies by initiating confrontation with two nuclear powers, one of which held financial power over the US as America’s largest foreign creditor.
  
  
  
  
  
  China’s oil investments in Angola and Nigeria were another target. To counter China’s economic penetration of Africa, the US created the American African Command in the closing years of the first decade of the 21st century. Disturbed by China’s rise, the US undertook to prevent China from having independent sources of energy. The great game that in the past has always led to war is being played out once again.
  
  
  
  
  
  September 11, 2001, provided Washington with a new “threat” to replace the Soviet threat, which had expired in 1991. Despite the absence of the Soviet threat, the military/ security budget had been kept alive for a decade. September 11, 2001, injected rapid growth into the military/security bud- get. A decade later the budget stood at approximately $1.1 trillion annually, or approximately 70 percent of the federal deficit which was crippling the dollar and threatening the US Treasury’s credit rating.
  
  
  
  
  
  Focused on Middle Eastern wars, Washington was losing the war for the US economy.
  
  
  
  
  
  As the expectation of economic recovery evaporated over the course of 2011, the need for war became more imperative. (See Antiwar.com, “Sen. Graham ‘Very Close’ to War.”)
  
  
  
  
  
  Former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal and columnist for Business Week, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts served on personal and committee staffs in the House and Senate, and served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy during the Reagan Administration. He has held academic appointments in six universities. He was awarded the US Treasury Silver Medal and the Legion of Honor by the President of France.
  

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